2024 was a year of great variation for property sales and prices across the country.
Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin experienced a decline in property values, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide all recorded double digit price growth.
The year started on a high with a shortage of properties on the market. At the time it was anticipated that there would be a rate cut which fuelled the property market.
By the end of the year the supply of available housing stock increased which caused demand to drop and properties taking longer to sell.
Buyers' confidence dissipated towards the end of the year with interest rates remaining high and inflation sitting above the Reserve Bank's preferred band of between 2 and 3 percent.
2025 is shaping up as a hard year ahead.
The Treasurer's announcement on Wednesday of a predicted $21.8 billion blowout in the federal budget and that Commonwealth debt will exceed a trillion dollars in 2025 will put a dampener on the economy.
It is difficult to see any significant price growth and I believe sales will remain depressed.
The major issues that will affect the property market in 2025 will be:
The election : The Federal Government has to call an election by 17 May, 2025 at the latest. An earlier date in March is a big possibility if the government believes that interest rates will not come down and that the economy may sink further into debt.
Cost of living: price rises fuelled by inflation are hurting every day Australians who are desperately waiting for mortgage rate relief to help them pay their bills, council rates, insurance, land tax, petrol, electricity, gas and groceries, which have all skyrocketed.
Immigration is also a crucial factor: The government has reduced the intake for 2025 to 185,000 people of which 132,200 will be welcomed as skilled migrants. The government recently implemented a new Skills in Demand Visa (SID) to fast track the immigration process.
Between the beginning of 2022 until the end of 2024 migration has soared by 1,851,000 people. This has been the major reason why over the past three years there has been an explosion in rental demand and house prices remaining high.
With fewer new arrivals predicted in 2025, demand for housing should taper off.
Interest rates: Rates will play a crucial role next year. After 12 interest rate rises, a rate reduction when it finally comes (economists are mixed in their predictions) will be the catalyst to a recovery in the property market. It appears a rate cut will most likely occur from May onwards.
The State Government’s new Help to Buy and Build to Rent schemes and the Federal Government’s Home Buyer scheme, Regional First Home Buyers Guarantee and off the plan stamp duty savings schemes will stimulate the economy and see demand for housing increase.
Buyers always want to buy at the bottom of the property cycle and sellers want to sell at the peak of the property cycle.
My advice is now is the best time to buy. Sellers are willing and anxious to sell which means that buyers can negotiate a favourable deal.
It will not last long and prices will take off towards the end of 2025.
LOOKING FORWARD TO 2025